bitchet: obama looking off into the distance (◊| this tired world could change)
My Graceless Heart ([personal profile] bitchet) wrote2015-10-25 01:42 pm

Any hope of success is fleeting

So let's have a real life post before I go into my feelings about all my other fandoms,

- My mom is currently in the hospital. She fractured her hip last week. The recovery rate for elderly people who have experienced hip fractures is not exactly great, a fact I tried to convey to my brothers. However, they both assumed I was just scared or worried even though I was very calm and straightforward and they brushed it off. They then returned to their normal behavior whenever one of parents is seriously ill - the eldest one acted like it was no big deal and it would be fine while the middle brother just didn't talk about it much.

They were going to release her on Tuesday but just like I told them would happen - and as anyone could have predicted as we are talking about a 74-year old chainsmoker - the hospital found a small blood clot and is keeping her indefinitely.

I think my brothers are taking me a little more seriously now about this but that could change. Obviously, there's very little we can do about this but it's just frustrating at how they never fucking learn.

- As mentioned back in July, I moved to my own apartment. I am still in the process of decorating it but I will post some before and afters so you can all enjoy my questionable taste.

- And I just started using my DailyKos account again which can only mean one thing - election season is upon us! Who I am voting for in 2016? Hint: It will be a Democrat.

As the Republican party continues its decades-long spiral into insanity, I will never consider casting a vote for a Republican at a local, state, or national level. They need to be cut off at their knees and forced into becoming a saner center-right party and that won't happen until they lose the White House for a long time, lose their advantage on SCOTUS, lose the Senate and lose the House. The last will be the hardest to achieve but I am hopeful SCOTUS's ruling on Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission will make it possible to affect some real change in the next decade.

All that said, the real choice for me is between Bernie and Hillary. Surprisingly, for those who remember my feelings in 2008, I am leaning Hillary. I know she has been all over the map on some issues and is known for making the politically expedient move but I also think she is devoted to the Democratic Party and, on a more base level, devoted to establishing her legacy as a great liberal champion.

Which, hey, let's be honest, everyone who runs for president has a huge fucking ego. Hillary's has just been more obvious for the start. Plus, it's actually a good thing that her negatives are so well known as it makes it easy to know where the basement is when it comes to her support. Her campaign this time around seems much stronger and - should Bernie win either (or both) Iowa and New Hampshire - I don't get the sense we will see that catastrophic implosion in 2008. She also has a stronger record and enough time has passed that she isn't seen as just a former First Lady but a Senator, turned SoS, who started as the First Lady. I think her willingness to work with Obama really helped her and helped her image with a lot of Democrats.

We know she intelligent and tough. The Republicans have had a witch hunt on her since 1992 and she only continues to rise. Benghazi and emailgate really only worked with those who are already pretty anti-Hillary to start with so there's nothing lost there. She can only gain support from here on out.

And as far as I'm concerned my real goals in any presidential election are - 1) Prevent a Republican from appointing anyone else to SCOTUS (Ginsburg is 82 and Breyer is 79) so we can get a liberal-leaning SCOTUS and soon; 2) Destroy the Republican party that currently exists for reasons mentioned above; 3.) Create a stronger Democratic party. Due to gerrymandering and the fact that the Republicans had a 20 year head-start at focusing on the local level, this means winning the presidency; and 4.) Moving the Overton Window further left so we can attacking the Corporatism and Imperialism that is choking the country and giving us a New Gilded Age. As any Democrat who is not actually Ted Cruz in a mask could help make this happen, I would actually vote for someone's beloved Golden Retriever if it came down to that.

So I am definitely not anti-Bernie. He has a solid record that is actually better than Warren's on liberal issues. (I, as all liberals must, love Elizabeth Warren but it kind of kills me that people bring up teenie!Hillary campaigning for Goldwater when Warren identified as a Republican until 1996 which was 16 years after she definitely should have known better.) And I really admire how he has continued focusing on his work in the Senate even while campaigning. Something Obama and Hillary kinda let slide in 2008.

My concern with Bernie is I don't know if he can win. And yes, for Bernie supporters that must sound insane just the way it sounded crazy to me in 2008 when people said the same thing about Obama. He'll win if you support him, duh!

Well, no. If he is seen as a real contender and not just as the Democratic Party's Wacky Uncle as he is now, then the media will go after him. I'm not talking about ignoring online polls that have all the accuracy as a poll asking for TV's hottest couple. I mean the way they went after the Clintons and the Obamas. No one in his life will be left unscathed - not his wife, his parents, his former teachers or lovers, not even his children. They will tear that man apart and reveal every ugly thing they can find and make sure that's all people remember when it comes to him. It will be nothing less than a daily character assasination played out for several months and I don't know if Sanders can survive that.

Hillary has survived it for 20 years. Obama has survived it for the past several. Speaking of Obama, while I supported him from the moment he announced his candidacy, I still expected Hillary to get the nomination. I even expected it after Iowa. It wasn't until that March when the Reverend Wright tape surfaced and Obama's candidacy could have died right there that I realized something about Obama.

He could win. He knew how to outrun and outlast and he proved it again and again during that campaign. Which is good thing because he would have to prove it again and again for the next several years. I have no doubt that the Republican Party wanted to impeach him on day one just like they did with Bill just like they recently tried to pre-impeach Hillary with Benghazi.

And just like they will Bernie if he is the nominee.

Despite what the actual polls say, it's very early and he could still win Iowa, New Hampshire, and beyond. And when that happens, the real test of his support and his candidacy will happen. Unlike some, I do think he is more savvy than some of his supporters would indicate. While this might be the first rodeo for them, it's not for him. He did a good job handling that gun question in the first debate by moving center on an issue that will definitely give Hillary some trouble down the line. He could win this. But I'm going to need some proof of that before I support him.

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